[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 December 14 issued 2343 UT on 17 Dec 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 18 10:43:38 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Dec: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0110UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.1 0151UT possible lower West Pacific
M8.7 0453UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.4 1902UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Dec: 192/144
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 190/143 185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity was High for the UT day, 17 December,
with several M-class flares occurring from active regions 2241
and 2242. The largest flare over the UT day, 17 December, was
an M8.7/2B from active region 2242 (S18W02), peaking at 17/0451
UT. This flare was associated with a CME observed on LASCO C2
imagery first at 0512UT. The CME is expect to be hit the Earth
in the middle of the UT day, 19 December, though the majority
of the mass is expected to pass south of the ecliptic plane.
The largest flare from active region 2241 (S10E17) was an M1.4/1N,
peaking at 1901UT. Both regions have grown over the past 24 hours.
Expect Moderate to High activity over the next 3 days. Note there
is a low to moderate chance for X-class flares. The solar wind
speed remained around 400 km/s over the last 24 hours. The IMF
Bz component ranged between -/+5 nT. Expect the solar wind speed
to remain near 400km/s or slightly below over the the next 24
hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22110222
Cocos Island 3 22110110
Darwin 5 22111212
Townsville 5 22111222
Learmonth 4 22110212
Alice Springs 4 22110212
Norfolk Island 5 32100122
Culgoora 5 2--10222
Gingin 4 22110212
Camden 5 22110222
Canberra 4 32000122
Hobart 6 22211222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Dec :
Macquarie Island 5 23211210
Casey 25 45632232
Mawson 15 44432222
Davis 15 44432222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Dec :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1111 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Dec 6 Quiet
19 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
20 Dec 16 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Mostly Quiet across the
Australian region during the UT day, 17 December. Antarctic region
was mostly Unsettled to Active early in the UT day and Quiet
later in the UT day. Expect mostly Quiet levels of activity today,
18 December. Early on 19 December expect the same, however later
in the UT day expect geomagnetic activity to increase due to
the arrival of a CME. When this occurs expect activity to increase
to Unsettled to Active levels in the Australian region with isolated
cases of Minor to Major storm conditions at higher latitudes
for 19-20 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal
19 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are possible at high
latitudes, with a moderate chance of short-wave fadeouts for
the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Dec 125
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Dec 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Dec 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 61 was issued on 17
December and is current for 18-20 Dec. MUFs were near predicted
to enhanced over the UT day 17 December. Isolated cases of sporadic
E were observed in the eastern Australian regions. Near monthly
predicted MUFs to slightly enhanced values are expected for the
next 2 days. Expect near predicted values with periods of depressed
conditions on 20 December due an increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Dec
Speed: 436 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 91800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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