[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 December 14 issued 2330 UT on 16 Dec 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 17 10:30:51 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec: 185/138
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 16 December,
with several C-class flares occurring from active regions 2241
and 2242. Culgoora Solar Observatory reports growth overnight
in both these regions. The largest event was a C5.6 from active
region 2242 (S19E10), peaking at 16/1140 UT. Low to Moderate
activity is expected for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed
ranged between 500-400 km/s over the last 24 hours. The IMF Bz
component ranged between -6/+5 nT. Expect the solar wind speed
to remain near 400km/s over the UT day, 17 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 22123122
Cocos Island 5 22013111
Darwin 9 22123133
Townsville 8 22123132
Learmonth 7 22023123
Alice Springs 6 11123122
Norfolk Island 4 11022122
Culgoora 8 22123132
Gingin 7 22123122
Camden 8 1-123232
Canberra 4 11012122
Hobart 7 22123222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Dec :
Macquarie Island 12 21125322
Casey 17 45323223
Mawson 19 33344334
Davis 16 34334322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Dec :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 1233 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled across
the Australian region on 16 December. Antarctic region was mostly
Unsettled with isolated cases of Active levels. Expect these
conditions to prevail over the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are possible at high
latitudes, with a moderate chance of short-wave fadeouts for
the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Dec 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 113
Dec 87
Jan 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Dec 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Dec 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Dec 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 60 was issued on 14
December and is current for 15-17 Dec. MUFs were slightly depressed
early in the UT day, 16 December, and near predicted monthly
values later in the UT day in the Australian region. Cocos Island
station observed enhanced conditions. Isolated cases of sporadic
E were observed in the south western and north eastern Australian
regions. Near monthly predicted MUFs are expected for the next
3 days with isolated periods of mild enhancements likely and
pockets of mild depressions possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 465 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 122000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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