[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 December 14 issued 2330 UT on 15 Dec 2014

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 16 10:30:54 EST 2014 

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 DECEMBER 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec: 169/123


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Dec             17 Dec             18 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            165/119

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 15 December. 
The largest event was a C7 from active region 2242 (S19E23), 
peaking at 15/0140 UT. Culgoora Solar Observatory reports growth 
in active regions 2239, 2241, 2242 overnight. Low to Moderate 
activity is expected for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed 
ranged between 400-550 km/s, elevated above 500km/s for a short 
period around 19-20 UT. The IMF Bz component was mostly southward 
and ranging between -8/+9 nT over the last 24 hours. Expect the 
solar wind speed to remain between 400 and 450 km/s over the 
UT day, 16 December.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 15 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   22233323
      Cocos Island         8   2-223222
      Darwin              12   23323323
      Townsville          12   22233333
      Learmonth           11   32233322
      Alice Springs       11   22233323
      Norfolk Island       8   22223222
      Culgoora            10   22233223
      Gingin              11   23223323
      Camden              11   22233233
      Canberra             8   22223222
      Hobart              13   23333323    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Dec :
      Macquarie Island    25   23555422
      Casey               32   56543333
      Mawson              23   34435334
      Davis               32   35654333

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Dec : 
      Darwin               9   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   2322 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled across 
the Australian region on 15-December. Antarctic region was mostly 
Unsettled with isolated cases of Active and Minor storm levels. 
Expect these conditions to prevail over the next three days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions are possible at high 
latitudes, with a moderate chance of short-wave fadeouts for 
the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Dec   105

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      113
Dec      87
Jan      87

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Dec    85    Near predicted monthly values
17 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values
18 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 60 was issued on 14 
December and is current for 15-17 Dec. MUFs were near predicted 
monthly values with isolated cases of enhanced conditions across 
the Australian region over the UT day, 15 December. Near monthly 
predicted MUFs are expected for the next 3 days with isolated 
pockets of mild enhancements and depressions possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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