[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 August 14 issued 2334 UT on 26 Aug 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 27 09:35:00 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
several C-class flares from region 2146 (N07W50), the largest
being a C5 at 26/2325 UT. The solar wind speed increased from
~~250 km/s to ~300 km/s. The IMF BZ component varied between -4
nT and +6 nT. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate
for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11110012
Cocos Island 1 11100011
Darwin 3 12110112
Townsville 3 11210112
Learmonth 1 00110011
Alice Springs 2 11100002
Norfolk Island 1 11000001
Culgoora 2 1-110012
Gingin 0 00000001
Camden 2 11110012
Canberra 0 00000002
Launceston 2 11011002
Hobart 1 11010001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Aug :
Macquarie Island 8 42421000
Casey 2 12200001
Mawson 1 11000002
Davis 1 11111000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Aug :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1001 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Aug 18 Unsettled to Active
28 Aug 12 Unsettled
29 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been quiet over the last 24
hours. Some active periods in the Australian region are possible
on 27-Aug and unsettled periods on 28-Aug, due to CME and coronal
hole effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 29-Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal Normal Fair
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: There is a chance of short wave fadeouts over the next
few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Aug 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 26
August and is current for 27-29 Aug. Moderate MUF depressions
were observed, mostly in the North. Similar conditions are likely
over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 259 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 14800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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