[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 August 14 issued 2345 UT on 27 Aug 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 28 09:45:13 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Minor flaring occurred from active regions 2146(N07W58)
and 2149(N10E21). All regions are mostly stable. Expect solar
activity to be Low with the chance of M-class events from regions
2146 and 2149. No Earth directed CMEs observed. ACE data indicate
the arrival of the anticipated CME, the solar wind speed rose
slightly from near 300km/s to 350km/s. The IMF Bz component went
negative up to -14 nT since 00UT and is continuing south at 2300UT.
Density and temperature didn't change much. Elevated solar wind
speed from a coronal hole may take effect late 29 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
with isolated Active periods.
Estimated Indices 27 Aug : A K
Australian Region 9 12232332
Cocos Island 6 1222----
Darwin 10 23232232
Townsville 11 13241---
Learmonth 9 02232332
Alice Springs 7 0223----
Norfolk Island 8 12332221
Culgoora 10 12233331
Gingin 10 1233----
Camden 12 12243332
Canberra 7 02232231
Launceston 15 13343342
Hobart 14 12343342
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Aug :
Macquarie Island 25 0255----
Casey 9 2322----
Mawson 13 14332---
Davis 7 12222232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Aug :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1001 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Aug 16 Unsettled to Active
29 Aug 12 Unsettled
30 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled with
isolated Active periods during 27Aug. Unsettled to Active conditions
were due to some minor solar wind disturbance and extended southward
IMF Bz, from Aug 22th CME. The Australian region Dst index decreased
to - 110nT ~1000 UT. Possible Active levels today due to extended
southward IMF Bz. Unsettled conditions may accompany the influence
of a coronal hole high speed stream 29 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Aug 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
30 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 26
August and is current for 27-29 Aug. Possible MUF depressions
for the next few days. Chance of sudden ionospheric disturbance
(SWF) for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: 282 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 17400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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