[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 24 Aug 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 25 09:30:21 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.9 1218UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: A number of C-class flares from AR 12142 (N08 W76),
12143 (S06 W79), 12146 (N08 W 30), 12149 (N12 E38) along with
the M flare from innocuous AR 12151 (S07 E61). Regions appear
stable with AR12148 (N07 W11) in decline. There was an impressive
CME associated with the M flare with most material ejected to
the south-east. However, an impact cannot be discounted. A filament
was seen to lift off at ~1340 UT from the south-east quadrant
in GONG images. ACE data show the solar wind undisturbed with
speed less than 300 km/s and the north-south IMF +/-4 nT. The
solar wind is expected to become disturbed around 25 Aug/12 UT
due to the 22 Aug CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Cocos Island 1 01110000
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 2 12101011
Learmonth 1 11100000
Alice Springs 1 01100001
Norfolk Island 0 11000000
Culgoora - --------
Gingin 0 01100000
Camden 1 11101001
Canberra 0 10000000
Launceston 1 01111000
Hobart 0 01010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 1 12100000
Mawson 2 22110000
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 1221 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Aug 16 Quiet to Active
27 Aug 12 Unsettled to Active
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
26 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Chance of Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances (SWFs) 25-26
Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Aug 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed 15-20% 01-02, 05-08, 22-23 UT. Depressed
25-40% 14-21, 23 UT. Near predicted monthly values
at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed 15-20% with 30-40% depressions 09, 13-15
UT. No data 18-22 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed 20-35% 15-21 UT at Darwin. Depressed 20-30%
04, 12, 14-20 UT at Townsville. Near predicted monthly
values at other times.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Some depressions
to 30% at Brisbane and Learmonth 14-18 UT. No Hobart
data 05-21 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
26 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
27 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 24
August and is current for 25-26 Aug. Chance of sudden ionospheric
disturbance (SWF) 25-26 Aug. Spread F observed at Brisbane, Canberra,
Norfolk Is. and Sydney 11-20 UT. Improved HF conditions expected
25 and 26 Aug due to increased solar flux.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 308 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 30700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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