[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 19 Aug 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 20 09:30:19 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug
Activity Very low to low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Only two B-class events from AR 12147 (S09 E49). AR
12143 (S05 W11) and new region at n07 E58 grew while other regions
were stable. No Earth directed CMEs observed. ACE data show the
solar wind undisturbed until ~06 UT although the north-south
IMF (Bz) was mostly southward to -5 nT. A sudden impulse around
06 UT was probably the arrival of the 15 Aug CME. Wind speed
peaked at 467 km/s and has since declined to ~380 km/s. Bz was
mostly southward 1600-2130 UT, -10 to -15 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A K
Australian Region 13 10321145
Cocos Island 8 01221134
Darwin 11 11321144
Townsville 14 11331145
Learmonth 13 10321245
Alice Springs 12 00321145
Norfolk Island 7 10220134
Culgoora 12 103-1135
Gingin 17 10321146
Camden 11 11221135
Canberra 10 00220135
Launceston 13 01321245
Hobart 10 00221135
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Aug :
Macquarie Island 6 00130024
Casey 21 23331246
Mawson 29 22223257
Davis 9 12332232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug :
Darwin 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1120 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Aug 20 Quiet to Active
21 Aug 6 Quiet
22 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 19 August and
is current for 20 Aug only. Minor storm levels last 3-hour period
of 19 Aug due to extended southward IMF. Possible isolated minor
storm levels in first half of 20 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Aug 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressed 20-35%
04, 15-21, 23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressed 20-35%
01-02, 06-13, 17 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
Depressed at Darwin 20-40% 00, 03 07, 10, 12-16
21, 23 UT. Depressed 20% at Townsville 00, 04, 23 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements of
20-35% 15-22 UT except at Hobart and Learmonth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
21 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
22 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: Propagation conditions may be fair at times due to variable
support and waves travelling through the ionosphere. Spread F
likely at higher latitudes and possible at low latitudes during
night.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 290 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 24400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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