[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 18 Aug 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 19 09:30:20 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Most regions appear stable with AR 12139 (N15 W22) and
AR 12147 (S10 E62) each producing a single low-level C flare,
AR 12143 (S04 E02) has shown some growth. No CMEs observed. ACE
parameters show the solar wind speed below 330 km/s. The north-south
IMF range was +/-7 nT, mostly southward since 10 UT. The CME
associated with the 15 Aug filament eruption is expected to impact
on 19 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11201110
Cocos Island 2 11200110
Darwin 3 11201111
Townsville 3 12201111
Learmonth 4 21202120
Alice Springs 2 01201011
Norfolk Island 2 11201000
Culgoora 2 01201111
Gingin 3 11301020
Camden 2 11201110
Canberra 2 01201010
Launceston 5 02302121
Hobart 2 01201110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00101000
Casey 4 12301021
Mawson 10 12200135
Davis 7 02311041
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Aug :
Darwin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 5 2102 2202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Aug 12 Quiet to active
20 Aug 12 Quiet to active
21 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Initially quiet on 19 Aug. Unsettled with isolated active
periods extending in to 20 Aug with arrival of CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Aug 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed 15-20% 00-06 UT, depressed 25-40%
13-23 UT. Near predicted monthly values 07-12 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed 20-30% during 01-03, 19-23 UT. Enhanced
25-50% 10-11 UT. Near predicted monthly values at
other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed 20-30% 01-04, 12-14 20-21 UT at Darwin
Depressed 15-30% 05-07, 11-16, 23 UT at Townsville.
Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed to 25% at Norfolk Is, Learmonth and Perth
mostly after 10 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
20 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
21 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 301 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 24000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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