[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 August 14 issued 2332 UT on 03 Aug 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 4 09:32:48 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with the
largest event being a C2.5 flare at 0312UT from region 2132 (S19E18).
Solar wind speed remained steady over the UT day at ~400km/s.
The IMF Bz component ranged between +/-6nT with a notable southward
period between 15UT-21UT. A small equatorial positioned coronal
hole may influence the solar wind stream on the 04Aug. Solar
activity for the next 3 days is expected to be Low to Moderate
with the chance of M-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 12110121
Cocos Island 3 11210121
Darwin 4 12200221
Townsville 4 22100221
Learmonth 4 12110221
Alice Springs 4 12200221
Norfolk Island 1 1-010011
Culgoora 3 12100121
Gingin 3 12110121
Camden 3 12110121
Canberra 3 12110121
Launceston 3 12110121
Hobart 3 12110121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 01020010
Casey 6 23220122
Mawson 20 25111255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 11 3123 3422
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Aug 7 Quiet
06 Aug 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
to Unsettled conditions forecast for 04Aug with possible Active
periods should slight coronal hole effects influence the solar
wind stream. Mostly Quiet conditions expected for 05Aug-06Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Aug 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours with occasional depressed periods for Equatorial and Northern
AUS regions during local night. Mostly normal ionospheric support
for Southern AUS/NZ regions and Antarctic regions. Possible elevated
geomagnetic activity in the next 24 hours may result in depressed
MUF's for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions for 04Aug-05Aug. MUF's at predicted monthly
values and normal ionospheric support for most regions expected
for 06Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 100000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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