[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 August 14 issued 2349 UT on 02 Aug 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 3 09:49:17 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug: 156/110
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with only
C-class activity from regions 2130 and 2132. Region 2132 (S19E35)
produced the largest flare with a C2.7 at 1328UT. Solar wind
speed was steady at ~400km/s over the UT day. The IMF Bz component
ranged between +/-8nT over the UT day with notable southward
excursions. A small equatorial positioned coronal hole may influence
the solar wind stream late in the UT day on the 03Aug. Solar
activity for the next 3 days is expected to be Low to Moderate
with the chance of further M-class events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 22123311
Cocos Island 5 12122301
Darwin 6 22122311
Townsville 8 22223312
Learmonth 10 22233411
Alice Springs 8 22223311
Norfolk Island 6 22122311
Culgoora 7 22123311
Gingin 8 22222411
Camden 6 22122311
Canberra 6 12122311
Launceston 11 22233421
Hobart 7 22123311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Aug :
Macquarie Island 10 11143420
Casey 10 33232311
Mawson 23 43333525
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 12 2213 2244
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected over the next
24 hours with possible isolated Active periods late in the UT
day due to coronal hole effects. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
expected for 04Aug and mostly Quiet conditions for 05Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Aug 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours with occasional depressed periods for Equatorial and Northern
AUS regions during local night. Mostly normal ionospheric support
for Southern AUS/NZ regions and Antarctic regions. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 2 days. Possible elevated geomagnetic
activity for 03Aug-04Aug may result in depressed MUF's for Southern
AUS/NZ regions and disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic
regions. MUF's at predicted monthly values and normal ionospheric
support for most regions expected for 05Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 47600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list