[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 August 14 issued 2354 UT on 01 Aug 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 2 09:54:47 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 1449UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.5 1815UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug: 168/122
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with
M-class activity from regions 2130 and 2127. Region 2130 (S07E33)
produced the largest flare with an M2.0 at 1448UT. Region 2127
(S09E13) produced a M1.5 flare at 1813UT. Growing region 2132
(S18E51) was the source of a C8.6 class event at 0018UT. There
are currently 7 regions on the visible disk with regions 2130
and 2127 declining in area while region 2132 has undergone notable
growth over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed increased steadily
from 310km/s at 00UT to be ~410km/s at the time of this report.
The IMF Bz component ranged between +10nT and -8nT over the UT
day. Solar wind speed has the potential to increase over the
next 24 hours due to a possible glancing blow CME. A small equatorial
positioned coronal hole has moved into geoeffective position
and may influence the solar wind stream late in the UT day on
the 03Aug. Solar activity for the next 3 days is expected to
be Low to Moderate with the chance of further M-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 12121122
Cocos Island 4 11121112
Darwin 6 22221122
Townsville 6 12222122
Learmonth 7 22122123
Alice Springs 5 12121122
Norfolk Island 4 11121022
Culgoora 5 12121122
Gingin 6 21121123
Camden 5 12121122
Canberra 4 02121112
Launceston 6 12131122
Hobart 4 11121122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 00031001
Casey 7 22222123
Mawson 21 43122246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug :
Darwin 20 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 13 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 1111 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
to Unsettled conditions possible over the next 48 hours with
possible isolated Active periods for 02Aug-03Aug from a glancing
blow CME. Quiet conditions expected for 03Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions. Mildly degraded HF conditions
possible at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Aug 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Aug 65 Mildly depressed (<15%) to near predicted monthly
values
03 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 17900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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