[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 01 Aug 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 2 09:30:48 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 1449UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.5 1815UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug: 168/122
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 160/114 155/109
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 12121122
Cocos Island 4 11121112
Darwin 6 22221122
Townsville 6 12222122
Learmonth 7 22122123
Alice Springs 5 12121122
Norfolk Island 4 11121022
Culgoora 5 12121122
Gingin 6 21121123
Camden 5 12121122
Canberra 4 02121112
Launceston 6 12131122
Hobart 4 11121122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 00031001
Casey 6 22222122
Mawson 21 43122246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug :
Darwin 19 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 13 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 1111 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Aug 12 Unsettled
03 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
04 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Generally quiet to unsettled conditions expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions. Mildly degraded HF conditions
possible at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Aug 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Aug 65 Mildly depressed (<15%) to near predicted monthly
values
03 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 17900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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