[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 July 14 issued 2349 UT on 31 Jul 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 1 09:49:54 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JULY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.5 1115UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul: 156/110
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with
region 2130 (S07E43) being the source of the largest event with
a M2.5 flare at 1114UT. Region 2130 also produced numerous C-class
events throughout the UT day. There are currently 8 regions on
the visible disk with region 2127 (S08E22) declining in area
over the last 24 hours while region 2121 (N09W54) exhibited renewed
growth. Solar wind speed remained steady between 300km/s-340km/s.
The IMF Bz component ranged between +/-3nT for the majority of
the UT day with some sustained southward periods in the latter
half of the UT day. Solar wind speed has the potential to increase
over the next 24-48 hours due to a possible glancing blow CME
from the 30Aug erupting filament. A small equatorial positioned
coronal hole moves into geoeffective position in the next 12hrs,
potentially influencing the solar wind stream late in the UT
day on the 03Aug. Solar activity for the next 3 days is expected
to be Low to Moderate with the chance of further M-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 01101111
Cocos Island 2 11110110
Darwin 4 12111112
Townsville 3 11101112
Learmonth 4 12210211
Alice Springs 2 02100111
Norfolk Island 1 11000001
Culgoora 2 01101111
Gingin 2 01100122
Camden 3 01101113
Canberra 1 01100100
Launceston 3 01211211
Hobart 2 01101111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 13301112
Mawson 12 32210135
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jul :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 4 2100 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Aug 4 Quiet
02 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Aug 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with possible isolated
Active periods on 02Aug-03Aug from a glancing blow CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jul 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 65
Jul 92
Aug 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
02 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed for Northern AUS and Southern
AUS/NZ regions during local day and dusk. Mostly normal ionospheric
support for Equatorial and Antarctic regions. Occasional MUF
depressions possible for Equatorial, Northern AUS and Southern
AUS/NZ regions over the next 24 hrs with mostly near predicted
monthly MUF values expected. Possible increase in geomagnetic
activity for 02Aug-03Aug expected to result in variable HF conditions
for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 322 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 25100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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