[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 August 14 issued 2330 UT on 04 Aug 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 5 09:30:20 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 AUGUST 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels with several C class
flares observed over the last 24 hours, the greatest being a
C3. The solar wind speed is mildly elevated at around 450 km/s.
The total field strength of the IMF measured at the ACE satellite
is just under 10nT and is fluctuating in orientation, though
mostly southward since 1500UT. Solar activity is expected to
remain at Low levels and the solar wind conditions should settle
back to nominal levels over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 13221222
Cocos Island 5 12211122
Darwin 5 12211222
Townsville 7 13221222
Learmonth 8 23222222
Alice Springs 6 12221222
Norfolk Island 6 22221221
Culgoora 6 13221221
Gingin 7 22222222
Camden 8 13321222
Canberra 6 13221221
Launceston 10 23332222
Hobart 8 13322222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Aug :
Macquarie Island 11 13343122
Casey 10 33321223
Mawson 34 44333247
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug :
Darwin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1212 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Aug 5 Quiet
07 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been mostly Quiet with some
Unsettled periods. Some Unsettled periods can be expected for
another day before returning to mostly Quiet.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Aug 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 68
Aug 91
Sep 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum useable frequencies for HF communications are
mostly near predicted monthly values in the Australian region.
Some depressed periods during local night were observed in northern
and equatorial regions. MUFs are expected to remain mostly near
predicted monthly values for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 51300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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