[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 15 Apr 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 16 09:30:27 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr: 162/116
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity remains at Low levels with numerous C
class flares, mostly from region 2036(S18E13) although the largest
flare, a C7 was from region 2035(S19E26). No CMEs of significance
were observed. Solar wind conditions are ambient.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 11101001
Cocos Island 1 12001000
Darwin 2 11101002
Townsville 3 11111012
Learmonth 3 22102010
Alice Springs 2 11102001
Norfolk Island 1 11100001
Culgoora 2 11101012
Gingin 3 11201111
Camden 2 11101101
Canberra 1 11101001
Launceston 4 21212111
Hobart 2 11102101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 01121100
Casey 7 33212111
Mawson 16 34212235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Apr :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2131 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Apr 5 Quiet
17 Apr 5 Quiet
18 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and expected to remain
so for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Apr 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
18 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are good with MUFs at or exceeding
predicted monthly values, with some variability overnight in
Northern Australia. The ionising solar EUV flux is elevated with
numerous visible sunspot regions which should maintain the current
levels of ionospheric support for HF over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 66000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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