[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 16 Apr 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 17 09:30:26 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1 1959UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr: 184/137
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 190/143 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity is Moderate with a single M1 flare at
20UT from region 2035(S17E11) and numerous C class flare from
several other centrally located sunspot groups. Solar wind conditions
remain ambient. No CMEs of significance have been observed, although
coronagraph data in the period following the M1 flare is not
yet available. Further update on that event will be given in
tomorrow's report should a CME be observed. Solar activity is
expected to remain at Low to Moderate levels with a reasonable
chance of further M class flare activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11121001
Cocos Island 2 11021000
Darwin 3 11122002
Townsville 3 21111012
Learmonth 2 11122000
Alice Springs 1 00111001
Norfolk Island 1 10020001
Culgoora 1 11011001
Gingin 2 01121001
Camden 2 11021001
Canberra 2 10021001
Launceston 2 01121001
Hobart 1 00021001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 00031000
Casey 5 22322000
Mawson 4 21211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr :
Darwin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 2 2221 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Apr 5 Quiet
18 Apr 5 Quiet
19 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and expected to remain
so for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Apr 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
18 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
19 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are good with MUFs at or exceeding
predicted monthly values. The ionising solar EUV flux is elevated
with numerous visible sunspot regions which should maintain the
current levels of ionospheric support for HF over the forecast
period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 35300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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