[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 April 14 issued 2332 UT on 14 Apr 2014
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 15 09:32:01 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity has been at low levels, however there
have been numerous C-class flares from the rapidly growing region
2036(S198E13), the greatest being a C7. Previous region 2014
(S13) which previously produced M-flare(s) is currently coming
into view around the eastern limb. Solar wind conditions are
ambient. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate over
the next few days, with some chance of M class flare activity.
Solar wind conditions are expected to remain ambient over the
forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 21210021
Cocos Island 2 12110020
Darwin 3 22210011
Townsville 4 21220022
Learmonth 4 22210021
Alice Springs 3 11210021
Norfolk Island 2 11210010
Culgoora 3 11210021
Gingin 4 11210031
Camden 3 21210021
Canberra 3 11210021
Launceston 5 21310022
Hobart 3 21210021
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Apr :
Macquarie Island 3 11310011
Casey 9 34320022
Mawson 21 23431255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 14 4433 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Apr 5 Quiet
16 Apr 5 Quiet
17 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain
Quiet for the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Apr 105
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
16 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are good with MUFs at or exceeding
predicted monthly values, with some variability overnight in
Northern Australia. The ionising solar EUV flux is elevated with
numerous visible sunspot regions which should maintain the current
levels of ionospheric support for HF over the forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.6E+05
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 59100 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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