[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 April 14 issued 2330 UT on 13 Apr 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 14 09:30:38 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Three low level C flares from active regions 12033 (N12
E10), 12036 (S18 E27) and 12037. Region 12036 and local region
at S20 E32 are growing, other regions are stable. No Earth directed
CMEs noted. A filament was observed beginning to erupt from the
northeast quadrant ~1409 UT. ACE data show the solar wind speed
range 340-410 km/s with the north south IMF steady to -8 nT until
04 UT, then +/- 5 nT. There is a chance of an M-class flare.
Region 12014 (S13) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due
to return around 14 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Quiet to unsettled
with some isolated active periods.
Estimated Indices 13 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 32321131
Cocos Island 7 31221131
Darwin 7 32221131
Townsville 8 23221132
Learmonth 9 41221132
Alice Springs 7 32220131
Norfolk Island 6 23320020
Culgoora 7 22321131
Gingin 10 41221141
Camden 9 23321132
Canberra 8 22321132
Launceston 10 23322232
Hobart 9 23321232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Apr :
Macquarie Island 15 13353231
Casey 11 33332132
Mawson 51 66533366
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22 5343 4233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Apr 5 Quiet
16 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Storm conditions at high latitudes were likely due to
the sustained southward IMF on 12 and early 13 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Poor-fair
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Apr 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 25-40%
11-15 UT. Depressed 20% at 23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
Enhanced 25-35% 00, 06-09 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values to 20%
enhanced. Depressed 25-45% at Darwin 15-17 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
Hobart near predicted monthly values to 20%
depressed with spread F 11-22 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Apr 110 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
15 Apr 110 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
16 Apr 110 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 29800 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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