[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 April 14 issued 2331 UT on 12 Apr 2014
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 13 09:31:30 EST 2014
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 APRIL 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Two C-class flares from AR12035 (S18 E65). The larger
was a C5.0 at 0727 UT which was associated with a moderate CME
that was directed eastward and is unlikely to be geo-effective.
All regions appear stable. ACE data show the north-south IMF
sustained a steady southward bias to -9 nT from ~10 UT/11 Apr
to ~17 UT. There is a chance of M-class flares from AR12035.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: Quiet to Active.
Minor storm conditions at higher latitudes 12-15 UT.
Estimated Indices 12 Apr : A K
Australian Region 11 32324122
Cocos Island 6 31222121
Darwin 7 22223122
Townsville 11 32224123
Learmonth 12 42333122
Alice Springs 9 22224122
Norfolk Island 10 32324111
Culgoora 11 32324122
Gingin 12 42333222
Camden 11 32324122
Canberra 11 32324122
Launceston 11 3243-122
Hobart 9 2243-121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Apr :
Macquarie Island 34 43566320
Casey 6 32222111
Mawson 28 55343353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 9 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 0121 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Apr 12 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
14 Apr 5 Quiet
15 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 12 April and
is current for 12-13 Apr. Active/minor storm conditions on 12
Apr were due to a sustained southward bias of the IMF. Possible
active conditions on 13 Apr due to a coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Apr 130
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced to 20%
11-14, 18-20 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
00-03, 09-14, 23 UT, otherwise enhanced 20-60%.
Northern Australian Region:.
Enhanced 15-35% 07-14 and 20-40% 18-23 UT. Near
predicted monthly values at other times.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced 15-40%. Spread F at Hobart 08-21 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 35% depressed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 141
Apr 86
May 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Apr 110 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
14 Apr 110 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
15 Apr 110 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 370 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 21000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list