[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 September 13 issued 2325 UT on 28 Sep 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 29 09:25:57 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Sep 30 Sep 01 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed mostly stayed between 260 and 290 km/s during
the UT day today. IMF Bz mostly varied between +/- 2 nT today.
Solar wind stream is expected to stay at normal values on 29
September and can gain some strength on 30 September and 1 October
due to the effect of a coronal hole that is expected to take
a geoeffective position from around 30 September. Very low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next 3 days with some
possibility of C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Sep : A K
Australian Region 0 10000001
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 0 10000000
Learmonth 0 10000001
Alice Springs 0 10000001
Norfolk Island - --------
Culgoora 0 10000000
Gingin 0 10000001
Camden 0 10000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 10000002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 22200000
Mawson 4 21000032
Davis 1 1200000-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Sep :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0000 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Sep 4 Quiet
30 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Oct 10 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected on 29 and first half of 30
September. Unsettled conditions possible during the second half
of 30 September due to a possible effect of a high speed solar
wind stream from a coronal hole. Unsettled to Active levels of
conditions may be expected on 1 October due to the effect of
this coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in most locations with periods
of some MUF depressions at low latitudes and MUF enhancements
at high latitude locations were observed on 28 September. Mostly
normal HF conditions with the possibility of some MUF enhancements
may be expected on 29 September. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
may be expected in the second half of 30 September and on 1 October
especially in the high latitude areas.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Sep 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Sep 80 About 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
01 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in most locations with periods
of some MUF depressions at low latitudes and MUF enhancements
at high latitude locations were observed on 28 September. Mostly
normal HF conditions with the possibility of some MUF enhancements
may be expected on 29 September in the Aus/NZ regions. Minor
to mild MUF depressions may be expected in the second half of
30 September and 1 October in this regions, especially in the
southern areas.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 311 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 35600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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