[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 September 13 issued 2330 UT on 27 Sep 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 28 09:30:15 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Sep 29 Sep 30 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours.
No significant flare has been observed today (UT day 27 September)
until the time of this report. Solar wind speed mostly stayed
between 310 and 330 km/s during the UT day today. IMF Bz mostly
stayed positive up to +3nT during the first half of the UT day
today and negative up to -3 nT during the second half of the
day. Solar wind stream is expected to stay at normal values for
the next three days. Very low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next 3 days with some possibility of C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Sep : A K
Australian Region 0 00000101
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 11000101
Townsville 1 10000111
Learmonth 1 01000101
Alice Springs 0 00000101
Norfolk Island - --------
Culgoora 0 00000100
Gingin 0 00000100
Camden 0 00000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 3 ---01112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 22210111
Mawson 5 20001033
Davis 2 11001022
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Sep 4 Quiet
29 Sep 4 Quiet
30 Sep 6 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
There is some possibility of isolated unsettled periods on
30 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in most locations with periods
of MUF enhancements at some low and high latitude locations were
observed on 27 September. Mostly normal HF conditions with the
possibility of some MUF enhancements may be expected for the
next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Sep 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Sep 80 About 20% above predicted monthly values
29 Sep 80 About 20% above predicted monthly values
30 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in most locations with periods
of MUF enhancements at some low and high latitude locations were
observed on 27 September. Mostly normal HF conditions with the
possibility of some MUF enhancements may be expected for the
next 3 days in the Aus/NZ region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 26100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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