[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 September 13 issued 2330 UT on 29 Sep 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 30 09:30:15 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Sep 01 Oct 02 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low today. Two low C1 flares
were observed. Region 1853 which has gone past the limb, produced
the first C flare. This was a long duration flare and peaked
at 0127UT. The other flare came from region 1850(N10W60) and
peaked at 0525UT. No earthward directed CME was noticed. Solar
wind speed mostly stayed between 260 and 280 km/s during the
UT day today. IMF Bz mostly varied between +/- 3 nT today staying
slightly southwards for relatively longer periods of time. Solar
wind stream is expected to gain some strength late on 30 September
and stay stronger on 1 and 2 October due to high speed stream
from a coronal hole that is expected to take a geoeffective position
from around 30 September. Very low levels of solar activity are
expected for the next 3 days with some possibility of C-class
activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 11000011
Cocos Island 1 11000010
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 1 11000011
Learmonth 2 20000012
Alice Springs 1 10000011
Norfolk Island - --------
Culgoora 1 10000011
Gingin 1 11000011
Camden 1 11000011
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 3 32100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 32200011
Mawson 11 10100026
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Sep :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Oct 10 Unsettled to Active
02 Oct 10 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected during the first half of 30
September. Unsettled conditions possible during the second half
of 30 September due to a possible effect of a high speed solar
wind stream from a coronal hole. Unsettled to Active levels of
conditions may be expected on 1 and 2 October due to the effect
of this coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
02 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in most locations with periods
of some MUF depressions at mid latitudes and MUF enhancements
at high latitude locations were observed on 29 September. Mostly
normal HF conditions may be expected on 30 September. Minor to
mild MUF depressions may be expected on 1 and 2 October, especially
at mid and high latitudes due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic
activity levels on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Sep 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
01 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
02 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in most locations with periods
of some MUF depressions at mid latitudes and MUF enhancements
at high latitude locations were observed on 29 September. Mostly
normal HF conditions may be expected on 30 September in the Aus/NZ
regions. Minor to mild MUF depressions may be expected on 1 and
2 October in this regions due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic
activity levels on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 274 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 14800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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