[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 September 13 issued 2330 UT on 24 Sep 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 25 09:30:33 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Sep: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Sep 26 Sep 27 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed stayed around 350 km/s until 0600UT and IMF
Bz also stayed close to the normal value (mostly between +/-
3nT) during these hours. Solar wind speed then showed a gradual
increase up to 450 km/s due to the effect of a coronal hole.
On the arrival of this solar wind stream IMF Bz also showed fluctuations
between +/- 10 nT until 1700 UT, staying south for relatively
longer intervals of time. Solar wind stream may remain strengthened
on 25 September and then show a gradual weakening over the following
two days. Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next
3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Sep: Quiet to Active
with short periods of Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 24 Sep : A K
Australian Region 11 11135311
Cocos Island 7 11134210
Darwin 11 11135311
Townsville 12 11135321
Learmonth 12 11135312
Alice Springs 11 11135311
Norfolk Island 13 21135223
Culgoora 12 21135311
Gingin 11 10135312
Camden 11 11135311
Canberra 11 01135311
Hobart 11 11135311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Sep :
Macquarie Island 14 00045421
Casey 12 33333312
Mawson 15 33134423
Davis 16 23254321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Sep :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1210 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Sep 10 Unsettled to Active
26 Sep 7 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Periods of Active levels of geomagnetic activity and
minor geomagnetic storm were observed today due to the arrival
of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole that also
resulted in southward Bz. Unsettled to active conditions may
be expected to continue on 25 September due to the continued
effect of this coronal hole induced solar wind stream. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to gradually decline to unsettled levels
and then to quite levels on the following two days (26 and 27
September).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with isolated periods of
minor depressions were observed on some low latitude locations
on 24 September. Minor to mild degradations and MUF depressions
may be observed on high and some mid latitude locations on 25
September. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 26
and 27 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Sep 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
26 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
27 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with isolated periods of
minor depressions were observed on some low latitude locations
on 24 September. Minor to mild degradations and MUF depressions
may be observed on high and some mid latitude locations on 25
September. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 26
and 27 September.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Sep
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 48800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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