[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 September 13 issued 2322 UT on 25 Sep 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 26 09:22:09 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the last 24 hours.
A C1.1 flare was observed from region 1846 yesterday (24 September)
at 2256UT. This event could not be included in yesterday's report
due to its late timing. No significant flare has been observed
today (UT day 25 September) until the time of this report. Solar
wind speed showed a gradual decline from 450 km/s to 390 km/s
during the UT day today, indicating a weakening effect of the
high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole. IMF Bz mostly
varied between +/-4 nT today, staying north for relatively longer
periods of time. Solar wind stream is expected to further weaken
over the next 24 hours as the coronal hole effect declines further.
Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the next 3
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 12210011
Cocos Island 1 12-10000
Darwin 2 12100012
Townsville 2 11210011
Learmonth 3 22210001
Alice Springs 3 12200012
Norfolk Island - --------
Culgoora 1 11100001
Gingin 3 21210002
Camden 2 11210001
Canberra 1 11100001
Hobart 5 12210032
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 11110001
Casey 11 44421001
Mawson 8 43222101
Davis 6 33321000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Sep :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 1103 4322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Sep 6 Quiet
27 Sep 4 Quiet
28 Sep 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in most locations with periods
of MUF enhancements at some low latitude locations were observed
on 25 September. Mostly normal HF conditions with the possibility
of some MUF enhancements may be expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Sep 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Sep 80 About 10% above predicted monthly values
27 Sep 85 About 20% above predicted monthly values
28 Sep 85 About 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions in most locations with periods
of MUF enhancements at some low latitude locations were observed
on 25 September. Mostly normal HF conditions with the possibility
of some MUF enhancements may be expected for the next 3 days
in the Aus/NZ region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.9E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 77900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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