[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 September 13 issued 2325 UT on 23 Sep 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 24 09:25:42 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 108/58 108/58 108/58
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed gradually decreased from nearly 400 km/s to
340 km/s and IMF Bz showed fluctuations between +/-4nT during
this period. Low levels of solar activity are expected for the
next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 12100021
Cocos Island 2 12110020
Darwin 2 12000011
Townsville 3 12101021
Learmonth 2 12100020
Alice Springs 1 11000020
Norfolk Island 1 11001---
Culgoora 3 1-------
Gingin 2 21100021
Camden 2 12100021
Canberra 2 11000021
Hobart - --------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 8 33321121
Mawson 19 33202164
Davis 16 23312160
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Sep :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2220 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Sep 5 Quiet
26 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to
unsettled levels on 24 September. Mostly quiet conditions may
be expected on 25 and 26 September.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild degradations in HF conditions were observed on
low latitude locations on 23 September. Mostly normal HF conditions
may be expected for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Sep 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
25 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
26 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Periods of mildly depressed HF propagation conditions
were observed on low latitude locations on 23 September. Mostly
normal HF conditions may be expected for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 72600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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