[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 September 13 issued 2331 UT on 18 Sep 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 19 09:31:05 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Sep: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: The 10.7 cm solar flux is presently trending upwards
and is expected to reach 110 in coming days. The background X-ray
flux has been trending upwards and is presently approaching the
B3 level. There are five numbered Active Regions on the visible
disk. The largest spot group is AR 1846. The largest X-ray flare
during the previous 24 hours was a C3.9 class event at 03:15
UT from AR 1846. C-class solar flares are probable during the
next 48 hours. The expected high speed solar wind stream has
arrived. The solar wind speed increased from about 375 km/s at
~~02 UT to almost 600 km/s at ~21 UT on 18 September. The IMF
Bz component has been fluctuating in the range -5 nT to +5 nT
with an average value near to zero during the previous 24 hours.
SOHO LASCO images show a well-defined CME observed leaving the
south east limb starting at about 13 UT. This event will not
be geo-effective. A large coronal hole (CH 587) is located in
the Northern Hemisphere and is approaching the solar central
meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 21012212
Cocos Island 3 11011221
Darwin 5 21122212
Townsville 7 22123222
Learmonth 7 21122322
Alice Springs 5 22022212
Norfolk Island 4 11012122
Culgoora 7 22123212
Gingin 4 11012222
Camden 5 22112212
Canberra 5 11013212
Hobart 5 12013212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Sep :
Macquarie Island 5 11023211
Casey 10 33222322
Mawson 18 34112345
Davis 10 22222234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Sep :
Darwin 10 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 1321 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled
during the next 48 hours due to the arrival of a high speed solar
wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Sep 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 10-30% during 01-07 UT and 10-23 UT.
No day time enhancement.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 10-30% during 00-06 UT and 12-18 UT.
Enhanced by 5-20% during 08-11 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 5-30% for most of the day.
Occasionally at predicted monthly values
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed 5-10% for much of the day.
Slightly enhanced during 10-15 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support for HF propagation were moderately
depressed for the Australian region during 18 September. The
Perth region was an exception with enhancements of 5-35% during
12-23 UT. The 10.7 cm solar flux is trending upwards and this
suggests HF propagation support will return to predicted monthly
values in coming days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Sep
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 53600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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