[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 September 13 issued 2330 UT on 17 Sep 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 18 09:30:14 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep
Activity Very low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: AR 1841 is located near the centre of the disk and three
new sunspot regions have appeared on the disk. Two of these are
located on the eastern limb. Solar activity has been very low,
with the X-ray background flux remaining near the B2 level. The
strongest X-ray flare was a B6.8 event at 21:18 UT on 17 September.
Solar activity is expected to remain very low during the next
24 hours. The solar wind speed remained in the range 350 to 400
km/s and Bz fluctuated between -5 nT and +5 nT during 17 September.
The solar wind speed is still expected to start increasing due
to the arrival of a high speed stream from the coronal hole which
is rotating toward the western limb. The enhancement is presently
not expected to be especially strong. A larger coronal hole is
located in the Northern Hemisphere and is approaching the solar
central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 22202232
Cocos Island 5 12201131
Darwin 7 22202232
Townsville 7 22202232
Learmonth 6 22202231
Alice Springs 6 12202232
Norfolk Island 5 21201131
Culgoora 7 22202232
Gingin 5 22202121
Camden 7 22202232
Canberra 6 22202132
Hobart 5 12202221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Sep :
Macquarie Island 4 11302120
Casey 12 34421222
Mawson 17 34322315
Davis 12 33423212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Sep :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2021 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Sep 12 Unsettled
19 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Sep 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 17 September
and is current for 17-18 Sep. Australian region geomagnetic activity
was quiet to unsettled during 16 September. The solar wind speed
may still increase today due to the arrival of a high speed solar
wind stream. However, at this stage, only minor geomagnetic activity
is expected during the next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Sep 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-50% during 06-14 UT.
Depressed by up to 15% at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed throughout most of the day.
Depressed by 15-30% during 00-07 UT,
50% during 11-12 UT, and 15-30% during 13-17 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressions of 5-15% throughout the UT day.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
19 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Except for a major day time enhancement at the Cocos
Island Region, HF propagation conditions were were generally
depressed at low latitude regions. Conditions were close to normal
at mid latitude locations and are expected to remain close to
normal during the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed: 362 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 34200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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