[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 September 13 issued 2355 UT on 16 Sep 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 17 09:55:22 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Sep: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Sep 18 Sep 19 Sep
Activity Very low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: There are presently two minor, stable sunspot regions
visible (AR 1840 and 1841). Solar activity has been very low
during the previous 24 hours and is expected to remain very low
for the next 48 hours. The X-Ray background flux was mostly less
than the B 2 level during 16 September. There is a very small
chance of C-class X-ray flare. B-class flares are more likely.
A coronal hole has rotated into geoeffective position and the
solar wind speed is expected to increase during the next 12-24
hours. The solar wind speed has been gradually declining from
nearly 600 km/s on 14 September and on 16 September bottomed
in the range 350-400 km/s. The IMF Bz component fluctuated between
about -4 nT and +3 nT but was predominately negative during 16
September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11111101
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 3 21111002
Townsville 3 11111111
Learmonth 3 21211101
Alice Springs 2 11111001
Norfolk Island 2 20110001
Culgoora 2 11111101
Gingin 3 21211101
Camden 2 11111101
Canberra 2 11111101
Hobart 3 11221101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 01021200
Casey 10 33422112
Mawson 10 42222123
Davis 8 23322221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Sep :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1000 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
18 Sep 12 Unsettled
19 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet during 16 September.
A high speed solar wind stream is expected to arrive during the
next 12-24 hours, leading to unsettled to active geomagnetic
conditions during the next 48 hours. Depending on the orientation
of the IMF, A minor geomagnetic storm is possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Sep 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed 5-35% for most of the day.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed 15-30% during 00-04, 12-17 and 20-22 UT.
Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Conditions depressed 5-30% for most of the day.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
18 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
19 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions were generally depressed at low latitude
regions and near normal or slightly depressed at midlatitude
locations. Further depressions to 30% are likely, especially
for low latitude circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Sep
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 37500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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