[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 September 13 issued 2330 UT on 19 Sep 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 20 09:30:14 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: The largest X-ray flare during the previous 24 hours
was a C1.8 class event at 08:17 UT from AR 1850. There were 3
more B class from this region. More C-class solar flares are
probable during the next 48 hours. SOHO LASCO images show a slow
CME observed leaving the south east limb starting during 03 UT.
There is a possibility that a component of this CME is Earthward
directed and may impact Earth in 3-4 days. The large coronal
hole (CH 587) located in the Northern Hemisphere is traversing
the central meridian today. The deepest part of the coronal hole
is located north of the solar equator. Elevated solar wind speeds
may arrive at Earth in 3-4 days. The solar wind speed remained
mostly between 500 and 600 km/s during September 19. This strong
flow was due to a coronal hole which has now receded from view
on the western limb. The IMF Bz component was weakly negative,
fluctuating in the range -5 nT to +2 nT during 00-11 UT. For
the remainder of 19 September, it was mostly in the range -2
nT to +2 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 22332122
Cocos Island 7 22332210
Darwin 8 22323112
Townsville 9 22333122
Learmonth 11 32333222
Alice Springs 9 22333122
Norfolk Island 7 22332111
Culgoora 8 22332122
Gingin 10 32332222
Camden 8 22332122
Canberra 8 22332112
Hobart 10 22432122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Sep :
Macquarie Island 17 24543211
Casey 10 33331222
Mawson 33 54432365
Davis 32 43542265
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Sep :
Darwin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 2201 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Sep 7 Quiet
22 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled
during 20 September due to a high speed solar wind stream from
a coronal hole. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to become
quiet on 21 and 22 September before becoming unsettled again
due to the influence of another high speed stream or weak CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Sep 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced 15-40% during 06-14 UT.
Depressed 15-25% during 16-22 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 15-40% during 00-10 UT.
Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed 10-35% during 13-21 UT.
Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
22 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Averaged across all regions, ionospheric support for
HF propagation was very close to predicted monthly values during
19 September. Strong day time enhancements occurred at the Cocos
Island and Niue Regions. Conditions were also moderately enhanced
at the Perth Region for most of 19 September. Depressions at
local dawn suggest that conditions may be depressed for some
stations during 20 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 401 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 66700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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