[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 September 13 issued 2330 UT on 10 Sep 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 11 09:30:15 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Two new bipolar regions at S13 W26 and S12 E10. There
were two CMEs, observed in LASCO and STEREO images, associated
with filament lift-offs from the eastern limb and the south-east
quadrant. Neither CME is likely to be geo-effective. ACE data
show the solar wind undisturbed until about 0830 UT. Wind speed
steadily rose but remains under 400 km/s while the north-south
IMF component range was +6 to -7 nT. A recurrent coronal hole
is expected to influence the solar wind beginning 12 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 00022322
Cocos Island 6 11122321
Darwin 6 01023322
Townsville 8 00033332
Learmonth 7 01023332
Alice Springs 6 00023322
Norfolk Island 3 00022221
Culgoora 6 10032322
Gingin 6 00022332
Camden 6 10032322
Canberra 5 10032222
Hobart 6 00132322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Sep :
Macquarie Island 5 00031321
Casey 9 12223332
Mawson 21 20034455
Davis 2 1110----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0111 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Sep 16 Unsettled to Active
13 Sep 16 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Isolated minor storm levels possible 12 and 13 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
13 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Sep 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced 20-30% 06-17 UT, 25% depressions 19, 20
and 22-23 UT. Near predicted monthly values at other
times.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed 15-25% 00-18 UT. Near predicted values
at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed 15-25% 06-13 UT, depressed 25-35%
16-20 UT. Near predicted monthly values at other
times.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Brisbane and Norfolk
Is. had depressions 20-25% 07-13 UT and 25-35%
depressions 17-20 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
12 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
13 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 54500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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