[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 September 13 issued 2330 UT on 11 Sep 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 12 09:30:15 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Six regions on the visible disc. LASCO/STEREO images
show a CME on the south-east limb which is not expected to be
geo-effective. SDO/GONG images indicate that the CME was due
to a filament eruption on the limb. ACE data show the solar wind
speed ranged between 330-410 km/s with the north-south IMF component
between +/-6 nT. A recurrent coronal hole will become geo-effective
on 12 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 21122111
Cocos Island 3 21111110
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 4 21122111
Learmonth 4 20112220
Alice Springs 3 11121111
Norfolk Island 3 21022110
Culgoora 4 11122112
Gingin 4 21112120
Camden 5 21122112
Canberra 3 11022111
Hobart 4 11122112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Sep :
Macquarie Island 5 10133111
Casey 12 44321122
Mawson 8 22121242
Davis 11 32322242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Sep :
Darwin 15 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 0002 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Sep 22 Unsettled to active. Chance of isolated minor
storm levels.
13 Sep 14 Unsettled to active
14 Sep 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: A recurrent coronal hole is expected to increase activity
over the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
13 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Sep 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed 20-35% 02, 11-12, 15-21, 23 UT.
Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 20-35% 00-11 UT. Depressed 20-35%
14-23 UT. Near predicted monthly values at
other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values to 15%
depressed. Depressed 20-30% 17-22 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15-20% during local night. Enhanced
at Perth 15-30% 14-23 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values. Some enhancements
to 30%
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions to 20% possible at times at all latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 44200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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