[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 September 13 issued 2330 UT on 09 Sep 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 10 09:30:41 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 95/41
COMMENT: Only region 1838 (S04 E17), a single spot, on the visible
disc. A filament erupted from the north-west quadrant and was
associated with a weak CME which is unlikely to be geo-effective.
ACE data show the solar wind speed undisturbed. Wind speed is
expected to increase on 11 Sep due to a recurrent coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Sep : A K
Australian Region 0 01100000
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 3 12111011
Learmonth 0 01000000
Alice Springs 1 02100000
Norfolk Island 1 01100001
Culgoora 2 11110011
Gingin 0 01100000
Camden 2 02110001
Canberra 0 01100000
Hobart 2 12211000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 01110000
Casey 6 33311100
Mawson 6 23212112
Davis 8 23312131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Sep :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2311 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Sep 5 Quiet
11 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
12 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Increased activity expected on 11 Sep due to a recurrent
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Sep 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25-35% 08-11 UT. Depressed by 15-35%
13-23 UT. Near predicted monthly values at other
times.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed 20-35% 08-19 UT. Mostly near predicted
values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed 15-35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
during local night at Brisbane and Norfolk Is.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 20%.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
11 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
12 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 66900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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