[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 September 13 issued 2329 UT on 05 Sep 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 6 09:29:57 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low, with
one C-class flare each from regions 1836 (N11W50) and 1837 (S19W54).
A CME first observed in STEREO-A imagery at 05/2009 UT requires
further analysis to determine whether it will be geoeffective.
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next
3 days. The solar wind speed declined gradually from ~450 km/s
to ~400 km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly neutral with a
positive bias.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 10010001
Cocos Island 1 11110010
Darwin 2 21110001
Townsville 2 11010012
Learmonth 1 12000010
Alice Springs 1 10010001
Norfolk Island 0 10000001
Culgoora 1 10010011
Gingin 0 00000010
Camden 0 00010001
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 0 00000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 23320011
Mawson 7 21110043
Davis 12 22120054
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Sep :
Darwin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2012 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Sep 5 Quiet
07 Sep 5 Quiet
08 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Sep 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours. MUFs are expected to remain near monthly predicted
values for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.6E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Sep
Speed: 457 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 111000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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