[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 September 13 issued 2330 UT on 06 Sep 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 7 09:30:33 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
The CME observed at 05/2009UT is not expected to be geoeffective.
Very low to low activity is expected for the next 3 days. The
solar wind speed varied between 400-450 km/s then declined to
around 350 km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly neutral, with
a negative bias since 13UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 12102122
Cocos Island 2 11101021
Darwin 5 22102122
Townsville 5 12112122
Learmonth 4 21102122
Alice Springs 3 11002122
Norfolk Island 3 21102011
Culgoora 5 12112122
Gingin 4 21101122
Camden 5 12112122
Canberra 4 12002122
Hobart 5 12112122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 11001011
Casey 14 44412132
Mawson 17 22111264
Davis 16 23221162
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Sep :
Darwin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1001 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Sep 5 Quiet
08 Sep 5 Quiet
09 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet over the last 24 hours, with periods to storm levels in
Antarctica. Mostly quiet conditions are expected across the Australian
region for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Sep 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
09 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mildly depressed MUFs were observed over the last 24
hours in the northern Australian and Niue Island regions, with
significant daytime enhancements in the Cocus Island region.
Southern Australian MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values
over the last 24 hours. MUFs are expected to be near monthly
predicted values with possible mild depressions for the next
3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 433 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 77300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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