[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 September 13 issued 2330 UT on 04 Sep 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 5 09:30:34 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during the last 24 hours with
one C-class event from region 1836 (N13W36) and several from
region 1837 (S18W38), the largest being a C3.6 at 04/0428 UT.
No geoeffective CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected
to remain low for the next 3 days, with a chance of M-class flares
on 5-6 Sep. The solar wind speed hovered around 450 km/s for
most of the UT day. The IMF Bz component had a positive bias,
fluctuating between +/-4 nT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 21122011
Cocos Island 2 112-1000
Darwin 4 21122012
Townsville 4 22121012
Learmonth 4 21222011
Alice Springs 4 21122002
Norfolk Island 3 20121011
Culgoora 3 21121011
Gingin 4 20222011
Camden 4 21222011
Canberra 3 21122001
Hobart 4 21222011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Sep :
Macquarie Island 4 11132010
Casey 10 33422112
Mawson 17 42223145
Davis 11 42332122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Sep :
Darwin 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 2011 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Sep 5 Quiet
06 Sep 5 Quiet
07 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the Australian
region during the last 24 hours, with brief periods to storm
levels in Antarctica. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for
the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Sep 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
06 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours. MUFs are expected to remain near monthly predicted
values for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 74600 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list