[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 September 13 issued 2331 UT on 03 Sep 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 4 09:31:13 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 SEPTEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, the largest
event being a C1 flare from region 1834 (N12W59). Region 1835
(S13W52) showed signs of renewed growth. Solar activity is expected
to be low for the next 3 days, with a small chance of higher
activity. The solar wind speed increased during the second half
of the UT day to just below 500 km/s, probably due to a small
equatorial coronal hole. The IMF Bz component fluctuated from
around -5nT to +8nT. Solar wind speed is expected to decline
from late on 4-Sep. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion
enhancement event beginning 03/0525UT, which can be a precursor
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. Region
1818 (S6) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return
around 4 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 11212112
Cocos Island 4 12111112
Darwin 5 22211112
Townsville 5 21212112
Learmonth 6 21312212
Alice Springs 4 12211112
Norfolk Island 3 10211012
Culgoora 4 11212112
Gingin 5 21211212
Camden 4 11212112
Canberra 4 11212112
Hobart 4 11212112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 00112101
Casey 9 33322122
Mawson 14 21211226
Davis 6 22222121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Sep :
Darwin 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 2443 3221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Sep 5 Quiet
06 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet across the Australia
region, with some unsettled periods in Antarctica. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for 4-Sep, due to coronal hole effects.
Quiet conditions are likely for 5-6 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Sep 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 73
Sep 75
Oct 73
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
05 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
06 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some nighttime depressions were observed in the Cocus
Island region. Otherwise, MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly
values. MUFs are expected to remain near monthly predicted values,
with slight depressions, for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: 430 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 72600 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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