[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 October 13 issued 2343 UT on 26 Oct 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 27 10:43:20 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.3 0607UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 0927UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.5 0938UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.8 1118UT possible lower European
M3.1 1927UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.0 1955UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct: 165/119
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Oct 28 Oct 29 Oct
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Region 1882(S08E59) produced five M-class flares today,
along with a number of C-class events. Regions 1875(N07W36) and
1877(S12W16) also produced a number of C-class events. An M1.5
flare peaking at 0937UT from region 1882 was associated with
a Type II radio burst observed in Learmonth spectrograph with
estimated shock speed 1275 km/s. region 1882 increased in area
add magnetic complexity, is classified a Dko spot region with
a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and is now 280mil in
size. This region continues to have significant flaring potential.
Region 1875 is the other region on the disk with significant
flaring potential, classified an Ekc beta-gamma-delta region,
the largest of the numbered active regions 660 mil in size and
now in geoeffective position for CMEs. M-Class flares are expected
and a chance of an isolated X-class flare for the next 3 days.
A Disappearing Solar Filament (DSF) lifted off the SW Quadrant
~~0800UT. SOHO observed several CMEs among which a CME first observed
after 0230UT UT, probably associated to a C flare from region
1875 and a second CME observed by after 0830UT and most likely
associated with the DSF. The relevant period of imagery is not
yet available to see whether they have an earth directed component.
Further analysis will be given in tomorrow's report when imagery
should be available. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field fluctuated
in the quiescent +/-4nT range causing no significant merging/reconnection
with the geomagnetic field. Solar wind was steady all day at
the light 320 km/s level. EPAM ions (often a precursor to geomagnetic
activity) increased over the UT. Proton flux (>10MeV) at geosynchronous
orbit also increased but remained below the event threshold.
Expect an increase in solar wind speed parameters on 28-29 October
due to CME combined effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11100002
Cocos Island 1 11100001
Darwin 2 11100012
Townsville 2 11100112
Learmonth 4 21200103
Alice Springs 2 11100002
Culgoora 2 11100002
Camden 2 11100002
Canberra 0 00000002
Launceston 2 11110102
Hobart 2 11100002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Oct :
Casey 8 34320002
Mawson 7 31110024
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Oct 25 Active
29 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been mostly Quiet for the Australian
region. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected on
October 27, and Active with isolated minor storm conditions are
expected on October 28 due to the expected merged arrival of
CMEs among which the halo CME from the X2 flare on 25 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days with a chance of SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Oct 115
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Oct 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
29 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 25
October and is current for 26-28 Oct. HF conditions are still
enhanced due to high levels of ionising EUV flux from multiple
sunspot regions. Expected geomagnetic activity 28-29 Oct may
reduce the maximum useable frequency from the currently enhanced
levels. MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values with
a chance of depressed periods for Southern AUS/NZ regions 28-29
Oct. Short wave fadeouts possible next two days with a reasonable
chance of isolated M and X flares from solar active regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 40200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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