[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 October 13 issued 2344 UT on 27 Oct 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 28 10:44:38 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.5 1248UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 167/121
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Solar flare activity declined during the previous 24
hours but still at Moderate levels. The largest flare of the
period was M3.5 flare at 1248UT from new region 1884(S11E73)(no
associated Type II sweep).The Highest activity has shifted from
regions 1882(S08E47) and 1875(N07W51). The aforementioned regions
remain large (300mil and 660 mil in size) and beta-gamma-delta
magnetic class, but stable; M-class flares possible from either
region and a chance of an isolated X-class flare for the next
3 days. All other regions are either stable or declining. ACE
data showed a weak increase in the solar wind parameters during
the late hours of 26 Oct. This was most likely the effect of
weak CMEs from October 22. ACE data show the solar wind speed
over the reporting period below 320km/s with the north-south
IMF +4/-2 nT. LASCO C2 and STEREO observed several CMEs on October
27, may impact Earth late 28Oct, along with the CME from the
25 October. EPAM ions (often a precursor to geomagnetic activity)
remain increased over the UT day. Expect an increase in solar
wind speed parameters on 28-29 October due to CME combined effects
mainly from October 25.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11211011
Cocos Island 2 11210010
Darwin 3 11211011
Townsville 4 11221111
Learmonth 4 11221111
Alice Springs 3 11211011
Culgoora 3 11211011
Camden 3 11211011
Canberra 1 00210000
Launceston 3 12211011
Hobart 3 11211011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Oct :
Casey 7 33321011
Mawson 5 11212031
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 1 1000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Oct 25 Active
29 Oct 20 Active
30 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Quiet for the Australian
region. Active conditions with isolated minor storm intervals
are expected next 12- 24 hours due to the expected merged arrival
of CMEs mainly from 25 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days with a chance of SWFs. Higher latitudes may experience
some degradations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Oct 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Darwin enhanced by 50% 10-16UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
29 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
30 Oct 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 25
October and is current for 26-28 Oct. HF conditions are still
enhanced due to high levels of ionising EUV flux from multiple
sunspot regions. Expected geomagnetic activity 28-29 Oct may
reduce the maximum useable frequency from the currently enhanced
levels. MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values with
a chance of depressed periods for Southern AUS/NZ regions 28-29
Oct. Short wave fadeouts possible next two days with a reasonable
chance of isolated M and X flares from solar active regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 288 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 12300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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