[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 October 13 issued 2341 UT on 24 Oct 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 25 10:41:35 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 23/2344UT possible lower West Pacific
M3.1 0008UT possible lower West Pacific
M9.3 0030UT probable lower West Pacific
M2.5 1010UT possible lower European
M3.5 1033UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity is at high levels, there were multiple
peaked M class flares and numerous C class flares from regions
1875(N08W11) and 1877(S12W03), both of which are beta-gamma-delta.
The largest flare of the period was an M9.3 flare from 1877 with
peak time at 00:30 UT. This flare was associated with a Type
II radio burst with estimated shock speed of 800km/s and a faint
CME observed in STEREO and SOHO satellite imagery after 0100UT.
Further M-class flares are expected and an X-class flare is possible
from the aforementioned regions during the next few days. ACE
data show the solar wind speed over the reporting period below
350 km/s with the north-south IMF mainly northward. There are
three inbound CMEs, however they are all weak so should provide
only glancing blows to the geomagnetic field.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 22010000
Cocos Island 2 22110000
Darwin 3 32110001
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 3 22120000
Alice Springs 3 32010001
Culgoora 3 32010000
Camden 3 32010000
Canberra 2 22010000
Launceston 3 22120000
Hobart 2 22010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Oct :
Casey 6 24221001
Mawson 4 22111022
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1210 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
26 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
27 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been mostly Quiet with some
Unsettled periods. Active conditions with isolated minor storm
intervals can be expected over the next 24 hours due to possible
CME effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days with a chance of SWFs. Higher latitudes may experience
some degradations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Oct 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
26 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
27 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 22
October and is current for 23-25 Oct. HF conditions are still
slightly enhanced due to high levels of ionising EUV flux from
multiple sunspot regions. Expected geomagnetic activity over
the next two days may reduce the maximum useable frequency from
the currently enhanced levels, however at this stage conditions
are not expected to drop significantly below the forecast monthly
values. Possible SWFs over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 53900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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