[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 October 13 issued 2330 UT on 23 Oct 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 24 10:30:17 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.7 2053 UT possible lower East Pacific/North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: GOES data show background x-ray flux for the most part
at low C-class levels with several C-class events from regions
11875 (N07 W07) and 11877 (S12 E10). Region 11875 produced an
M2.7 flare at 2053 UT (no associated Type II sweep). The aforementioned
regions remain large and magnetically complex but stable - there
is a good chance of further M flares. The other three, southern
hemisphere, regions are also stable. LASCO images show the 22/2120
UT M4.2 flare was associated with a faint CME with material ejected
to the south-west - this may impact Earth late 25 Oct, along
with the CME from the 22 Oct filament. ACE data show the solar
wind speed over the reporting period below 400 km/s with the
north-south IMF range +/-5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 12210001
Cocos Island 1 1--10000
Darwin 4 22210012
Townsville 3 11------
Learmonth 3 22210000
Alice Springs 2 12110001
Culgoora 2 12110001
Camden 2 12110001
Canberra 2 12110000
Launceston 3 12220001
Hobart 3 12220000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Oct :
Casey 14 35422112
Mawson 6 33311001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0011 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
25 Oct 12 Unsettled
26 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good conditions over forecast period.
Higher latitudes may experience some degradations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Oct 107
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements of
25-30% 11, 14-16, 22-23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values, enhanced 15-25%
05-06, 10-12, 23 UT and 35-50% 14-15 UT at Darwin.
Enhanced about 15% 00-05 UT at Townsville,
thereafter, no data.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Oct 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Oct 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Oct 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 22
October and is current for 23-25 Oct. HF conditions are currently
enhanced due to high levels of ionising EUV flux from multiple
sunspot regions. Similar ionospheric conditions are expected
for the next 3 days with a chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 328 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 42600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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