[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 October 13 issued 2341 UT on 22 Oct 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 23 10:41:42 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0022UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.0 1522UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M4.2 2120UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Three M-class flares and numerous C class flares today
with the most significant activity an M4.2 X-ray event at 21224UT.
Region 1875(N07E04) produced all the flares. This region has
grown rapidly in area magnetic complexity and has now become
a beta-gamma-delta magnetic class. Further M-class flares are
likely and an X-class flare is possible from this region. Other
regions currently on disk remain relatively unchanged. Associated
with the M4 flare was a Type II radio sweep. The relevant period
of imagery from SOHO LASCO is not yet available. Further analysis
will be given in tomorrow's report when imagery should be available.
A Disappearing Solar Filament (DSF) occurred around 0130UT. SOHO
LASCO images showed the associated CME expanding toward the north
starting at about 0430UT, however some part of the ejected plasma
cloud is expected to strike the Earth with an estimated arrival
on 26 October. The solar wind speed was steady ~290Km/s,rose
slightly to 340km/s ~0600UT and has been turbulent from 1600UT.
This was associated with some moderate (+/-5nT)fluctuations in
IMF Bz. There was a brief excursion to -8nT ~0600UT. This activity
is likely related to the arrival of a weak coronal high speed
stream, as predicted. Solar wind speeds are expected to stay
nominal from October 23 till 25.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 11320122
Cocos Island 4 12220121
Darwin 7 22321122
Townsville 7 22321113
Learmonth 6 12320122
Alice Springs 5 11320112
Culgoora 5 11320122
Camden 5 11320122
Canberra 4 11320012
Launceston 5 11320122
Hobart 5 11320112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Oct :
Casey 10 23431122
Mawson 10 11221125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Oct 7 Quiet
25 Oct 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet at all latitudes
with a brief Unsettled period around 0800UT likely related to
the arrival of a weak coronal high speed stream. Mostly Quiet
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours unless extended
IMF Bz southwards continues for several hours and then may reach
Unsettled levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days with a chance of SWFs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Oct 111
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Oct 100 About 20% above predicted monthly values
24 Oct 100 About 20% above predicted monthly values
25 Oct 100 About 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are currently enhanced due to high levels
of ionising EUV flux from multiple sunspot regions. Similar ionospheric
conditions are expected for the next 3 days with a chance of
SWFs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 296 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 19300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list