[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 October 13 issued 2330 UT on 21 Oct 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 22 10:30:22 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with only
a few low C-class flares from regions 1875(N07E32) and 1877(S13E55).
These two regions are the most complex regions currently on the
sun, have a beta-gamma-delta magnetic class and may produce M
class X-ray flares over the forecast period. No likely geo-effective
CMEs observed in the available STEREO and SOHO satellite imagery.
The solar wind speed remained in the light (~300km/s) range and
Bz fluctuated around neutral during 21 October. Elevated solar
wind speeds are expected to sweep past Earth 22-23 October. The
enhancement is not expected to be especially strong.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 11100101
Cocos Island 1 01100100
Darwin 2 21100102
Townsville 2 21000111
Learmonth 2 12100102
Alice Springs 1 11000101
Culgoora 1 11000010
Camden 1 11000011
Canberra 0 10000000
Launceston 1 11100101
Hobart 1 01100101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Oct :
Casey 6 13320201
Mawson 2 12101100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Oct 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions for the Australian region
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speeds are expected to increase
slightly during the next 24 hours under the influence of an expected
weak coronal hole high speed stream, leading to Unsettled geomagnetic
conditions during the next 48 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days with a chance of SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Oct 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Oct 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Oct 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Oct 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are currently enhanced due to high levels
of ionising EUV flux from multiple sunspot regions. Geomagnetic
activity over the next two days may reduce the maximum useable
frequency, however conditions are not expected to drop significantly
below the forecast monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 316 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 30000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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