[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 October 13 issued 2330 UT on 20 Oct 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 21 10:30:26 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with only
a few low C-class flares from the brace of sunspots across the
northern hemisphere including AR1873, 1875, 1868. However the
magnetic complexity and size of the 8 spot groups on the disc
indicates a ~25% probability of a low M class flare. A highly
curved prominence with footpoints near AR1873 looks like having
erupting potential. There was a higher than normal type III radio
burst activity, not geoeffective, but indicative of latent solar
activity. A solid CME late in the UT day on the 19th, possibly
from an erupting filament, was directed strongly northward and
not expected to be geoeffective. The IMF Bz fluctuated around
neutral till 12UT and has since gone mildly southwards (-4nT),
probably weakly merging with the geomagnetic field. Solar wind
speed fluctuated in the light 300-350km/s range.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11100002
Cocos Island 0 01100000
Darwin 2 21100012
Townsville 1 11000002
Learmonth 2 11100002
Alice Springs 1 00100002
Culgoora 1 11000002
Camden 1 11000002
Canberra 0 10000001
Launceston 2 10111102
Hobart 0 10000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Oct :
Casey 8 23421101
Mawson 5 01111133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0001 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Oct 6 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Oct 6 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Oct 6 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions for the Australian region
over the last 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for 21Oct
unless extended IMF Bz southwards continues for several more
hours and then may reach Unsettled levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Oct 101
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Oct 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Oct 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Oct 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUF's observed across the region, partially
from enhanced ionising EUV (f10.7cm) flux from numerous spot
groups. AR1861 and 1864 rotating off the disc should have diminished
EUV flux somewhat so extra ionisation in the Australasian region
may be due to transport by upper atmosphere (thermospheric) winds
from outside the region, usually from the northern hemisphere.
Similar ionospheric conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 29900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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