[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 October 13 issued 2353 UT on 19 Oct 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 20 10:53:02 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with the
most significant event being a C2.9 xray event from region 1861.
Region 1861 was also the source of numerous minor C-class xray
events. Solar wind speed steadily declined from ~380km/s to be
~~330km/s at the time of this report. IMF Bz ranged between +/-3nT
with only occasional southward excursions. Solar activity is
expected to range between Low to Moderate for the next 3 days
with the slight chance of M-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 11000101
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 3 21100112
Townsville 2 21000101
Learmonth 2 12000101
Alice Springs 0 10000001
Culgoora 1 11000101
Camden 1 11000101
Canberra 0 10000000
Launceston 1 11000101
Hobart 0 10000100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 5 22221112
Mawson 4 10111222
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 0221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Oct 4 Quiet
21 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions for the Australian region
over the last 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for 20Oct
with possible Unsettled conditions for 21Oct-22Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for Mid to High latitudes
with notable enhancements for Low latitudes. Similar conditions
expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Oct 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Oct 85 Near predicted monthly values
21 Oct 85 Near predicted monthly values
22 Oct 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUF's observed for IPS Niue station during
local day and for Northern AUS and Southern AUS regions during
local night. Undisturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions
over the last 24 hours. Similar ionospheric conditions are expected
for the next 3 days due to relatively strong ionising EUV flux
(f10.7cm) from the numerous sunspot regions on the disc.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 80100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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