[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 October 13 issued 2331 UT on 16 Oct 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 17 10:31:57 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 15/2337UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low on the 16th Oct with C class
flares from 4 of the 10 numbered active regions on the disc,
AR1861 and 1865 which have been flare producing the last few
days and also ARs 1870 (in the same area as 1865 and 1861) and
1867, soon to rotate off the limb. Solar wind speed has declined
from an elevated 530km/s and settled at 450km/s, slightly above
average as the influence of the coronal hole high-speed solar-wind
stream wanes. There is a large coronal hole in the northern hemisphere
that should be geoffective in ~ 4 days.
An earthward directed coronal mass ejection associated with an
M1.7 flare on the 13th was predicted to arrive for a glancing
blow in the middle of the UT day on the 16th but has not yet arrived,
so the shock front may have been narrower than modelled or the speed
overestimated. If it does not arrive by the middle of the 17th then
it has most likely missed Earth. A CME on the 15th associated with an M1.8
flare from AR1865 has been modelled as directed too far southwards
to be significantly geoeffective. A type II radio burst, often
indicative of a CME, was observed ~09UT on the 16th associated
with a low C flare from the geoeffectively positioned AR1861,
but no CME was observed in the SOHO or STEREO spacecraft coronagraphs.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 22212222
Cocos Island 3 21112110
Darwin 7 22212223
Townsville 6 22113212
Learmonth 6 22212222
Alice Springs 7 22213212
Culgoora 6 22212222
Camden 6 22212222
Canberra 4 12112211
Launceston 10 23223322
Hobart 8 23222222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Oct :
Macquarie Island 8 22123312
Casey 17 44433223
Mawson 35 55324652
Davis 20 43334351
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17 4443 3213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Oct 5 Quiet
18 Oct 5 Quiet
19 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet at mid and low
latitudes. Higher latitudes were more disturbed due to enhanced
but declining solar wind speed. An anticipated CME glancing blow
did not arrive (see solar section) so conditions are expected
to quieten over the 17th and remain so for the 18-19th in the
absence of new CMEs or extended IMF Bz periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Oct 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
18 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
19 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 15
October and is current for 15-17 Oct. Max Usable Frequencies
were near predicted monthly values over most of the region with
low variability as geomagnetic activity subsides. Expected to
continue at or slightly above median MUFs for next 3 days due
to relatively strong ionising EUV flux (f10.7cm) from 10 sunspot
regions on the disc. There was a brief short-wave fadeout (SWF)
in the SW Pacific (recorded at Niue) up to 9MHz from a low M
class flare from spot group AR1865 at ~2340UT on the 15th. AR1865
has further potential for low M class flares.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 523 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 173000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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