[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 October 13 issued 2340 UT on 15 Oct 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 16 10:40:11 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0901UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Moderate with and M1.8 flare
from AR1865 at ~09UT. An earthward directed coronal mass ejection
associated with this M1.1 flare may have occurred and is under
analysis. Solar wind speed has remained elevated but variable
at 450-550km/s during the UT, under the influence of the coronal
hole high-speed solar-wind stream and preceding solar sector
boundary. The coronal hole is quite narrow in longitude so the
solar wind speed should reduced to background levels during the
16th October. Of four CMEs launched 13-14th Oct, further analysis
shows the only one expected to be reasonably geoeffective is
that associated with the M1.7 flare at 0012UT on the 13th from
AR1865, due to arrive 13-15UT on the 16th.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 33233112
Darwin 11 43232113
Townsville 9 33232122
Learmonth 9 33232013
Culgoora 10 33233112
Camden 11 33243022
Canberra 8 33232012
Launceston 14 33343123
Hobart 12 33343012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Oct :
Davis 27 44553115
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 47 (Unsettled)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 0223 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Oct 20 Active
17 Oct 12 Unsettled
18 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 29 was issued on 13 October
and is current for 14-16 Oct. Magnetic conditions were mostly
Quiet at mid and low latitudes with a brief Unsettled-Active
period in the middle of the day after the arrival of a weak shock,
possibly a glancing blow from a coronal mass ejection launched
on the 11th. The solar wind speed continues to be elevated and
variable due to the solar sector boundary and coronal hole induced
high-speed solar-wind stream, due to reduce during the 16th.
Another CME is due in the middle of the UT day on the 16th for
a moderate glancing blow and Active conditions may be expected
late in the day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Oct 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Oct 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
17 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
18 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 15
October and is current for 15-17 Oct. Max Useable Frequencies
were slightly depressed across mid-latitudes due to slightly
disturbed geomagnetic activity. They are expected to remain so
on the 16th due to the glancing arrival of another coronal mass
ejection, before recovery on the 17th. AR1865 has potential for
M class flares and short wave fadeouts.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 108000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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