[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 October 13 issued 2330 UT on 17 Oct 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 18 10:30:17 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1541UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Moderate with several C flares
and a single M1.2 peaking at 1541UT. All flares from AR1861 which
will rotate off the disc 19-20th Oct. For the M1.2 flare there
is no SOHO or either STEREO A or B spacecraft coronagraph available
for several hours around this time to assess whether a CME was
issued. No type II radio burst reported so reasonable chance
of no CME. AR1861 nearing west limb so any CME unlikely to be
very geoeffective, with glancing blow 19-20th Oct at most. CME
observed in SOHO and STEREO-B spacecraft coronagraph from ~0430UT,
probably associated with C2.5 flare at 0348UT from a region just
rotating onto east limb or AR1873 at 60deg east. CME directed
south-east in coronagraphs so unlikely to be geoeffective with
slight glancing blow at best on 19-20th. Solar wind speed steadily
declined from 460km/s to a light 380km/s. IMF Bz was mainly southward
and variable in the -2nT to -6nT range, probably mildly merging
with the geomagnetic field.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 22232211
Cocos Island 3 12121100
Darwin 7 22232211
Townsville 7 22232211
Learmonth 8 22242211
Alice Springs 7 22232211
Culgoora 7 22232211
Camden 7 22232211
Canberra 5 12231210
Launceston 10 23342211
Hobart 8 22332211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Oct :
Macquarie Island 13 12354200
Casey 12 33433211
Mawson 18 43333343
Davis 13 33343222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 4211 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Oct 5 Quiet
19 Oct 5 Quiet
20 Oct 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet at mid and low
latitudes. Polar latitudes slightly disturbed by fluctuating
and southwards IMF Bz. Conditions are expected to quieten over
the 18th and remain so for the 19-20th in the absence of new
CMEs or extended IMF Bz periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Oct 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
19 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
20 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 17
October and is current for 18 Oct only. Max Usable Frequencies
were near predicted monthly values over most of the Australasian
region with night-time enhancements across mid and low latitudes
from either remnant geomagnetic activity of the previous day
or thermospheric winds transporting ionisation into the region.
Expected to continue at or above median MUFs for next 1-2 days
due to relatively strong ionising EUV flux (f10.7cm) from numerous
sunspot regions on the disc. The most prolific x-ray region AR1861
rotates off the disc 18-19th so ionising flux may decrease slightly
from the 20th.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 489 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 77700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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