[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 October 13 issued 2330 UT on 06 Oct 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 7 10:30:16 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct
Activity Low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day, 06 October.
The largest X-ray flare was a C1.1 at 1424UT. Expect Very Low
to Low solar activity for the next three days. The solar wind
decreased from 325 to 300 km/s and is expected remain in this
range for the next several days or slightly above. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +2/-3 nT
over the last 24 hours. CME noted on LASCO and STEREO-A imagery
early in the UT day to the north and southwest of the solar disc.
This activity is not expected to be geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 10001001
Cocos Island 0 1100000-
Darwin 1 2100100-
Townsville 1 2000100-
Learmonth 1 1100100-
Alice Springs 0 1100000-
Culgoora 1 10001011
Gingin 0 0100000-
Camden 1 10001011
Canberra 0 1000100-
Launceston 2 10001012
Hobart 1 10001011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 0000000-
Casey 3 1221100-
Mawson 2 0210102-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Oct 2 Quiet
08 Oct 4 Quiet
09 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was Quiet during the UT day,
06 October. Expect geomagnetic activity to be mostly quiet for
the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Oct 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Oct 72 Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct 72 Near predicted monthly values
09 Oct 72 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect near predicted MUF values for the next three
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 21700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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