[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 October 13 issued 2330 UT on 05 Oct 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 6 10:30:16 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day, 05 October.
Expect Very Low solar activity for the next three days. The solar
wind decreased from 360 to 330 km/s and is expected remain in
this range for the next several or slightly above. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly northward over
the last 24 hours. CME noted on LASCO and STEREO imagery at approximately
05/0730UT (note halo CME viewed from STEREO B and associated
with type II sweep). CME is not geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Oct : A K
Australian Region 0 10000000
Cocos Island 0 10000000
Darwin 1 21000001
Townsville 1 11000001
Learmonth 0 11000000
Alice Springs 0 10000001
Culgoora 0 10000001
Gingin 0 00000000
Camden 0 10000001
Canberra 0 10000000
Launceston 0 11000000
Hobart 0 10000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 1 12100000
Mawson 2 00010003
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Oct 4 Quiet
08 Oct 2 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was Quiet during the UT day,
05 October. Expect geomagnetic activity to be mostly quiet for
the next three days with the possibility of Unsettled to Active
levels at high latitudes if we get glancing blow from CME occurring
late on UT day, 02 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Oct 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Oct 72 Near predicted monthly values
07 Oct 72 Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct 72 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect near predicted MUF values for the next three
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 28500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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