[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 October 13 issued 2330 UT on 04 Oct 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 5 09:30:13 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 OCTOBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day, 04 October.
The largest flare was a C2.5-class X-ray flare occurring at 04/0332UT
from active region 1856(N08E43). Expect Very Low to Low solar
activity for the next three days. The solar wind decreased from
450 to 350 km/s and is expected remain in this range for the
next several days. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field was northward over the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Oct : A K
Australian Region 0 10000001
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 1 21000001
Learmonth 0 11000000
Alice Springs 0 00000001
Culgoora 2 10000003
Gingin 0 10000000
Camden 0 10000000
Canberra 0 10000000
Launceston 2 10000003
Hobart 2 10000003
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 5 33210000
Mawson 1 21000000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct :
Darwin 10 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 3000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Oct 2 Quiet
06 Oct 2 Quiet
07 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was Quiet during the UT day,
04 October. Expect geomagnetic activity to be mostly quiet for
the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Oct 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 68
Oct 72
Nov 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Oct 72 Near predicted monthly values
06 Oct 72 Near predicted monthly values
07 Oct 72 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect near predicted MUF values for the next three
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 451 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 28500 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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